A group of defense experts in Washington, D.C., have been busy dusting off old war scenarios and updating them with new information while gaming out a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan as Beijing has recently become extremely belligerent following House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) visit to the island nation.
Following her visit, China launched snap military exercises that included massive sorties of aircraft, the firing of ballistic missiles in and around the waters of Taiwan, and the deployment of dozens of warships, that could effectively blockade Taiwan if, in fact, that is what President Xi Jinping and the Communist leadership order.
But as for actually invading Taiwan, according to the defense experts, that is another situation entirely and not one that China could or should take lightly, according to various wargame scenarios.
“The results are showing that under most — though not all — scenarios, Taiwan can repel an invasion,” Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, which has been simulating the scenarios, said earlier this week. “However, the cost will be very high to the Taiwanese infrastructure and economy and to US forces in the Pacific.”
In sessions that will run through September, retired US generals and Navy officers and former Pentagon officials hunch like chess players over tabletops along with analysts from the CSIS think tank. They move forces depicted as blue and red boxes and small wooden squares over maps of the Western Pacific and Taiwan. The results will be released to the public in December.
Those results are not likely to include details like how the U.S. and Taiwan would respond, precisely; what weapons will be needed to thwart a Chinese invasion; or how the Brandon regime plans to respond diplomatically — all meant to keep China guessing.
But the report is likely to be impactful given that the U.S. public will need to be on board for the defense of Taiwan, which is something that absolutely should happen given Taiwan’s incredible value to U.S. national security and our economy: Taiwan is the No. 1 producer of sophisticated computer chips and that is a capacity that China cannot be allowed to obtain.
“The base assumption is that China invades Taiwan to force unification, which the US responds to with its military. Another assumption (that’s ‘far from certain’) is that Japan would grant ‘expanded rights’ to use US bases on its territory — but wouldn’t intervene directly unless Japanese land is attacked,” Zero Hedge reported, citing the wargaming scenarios.
It should be noted that nuclear weapons are not part of the current wargaming scenarios, but rather on existing weapons and capabilities in the region. But again, if nukes were factored in, it won’t be mentioned in the public report due out in September.
News of the wargames comes as companies make plans to leave Taiwan ahead of an emergency and the country conducts its own major military exercises.
According to private intelligence firm Forward Observer:
Multinational businesses operating in Taiwan are putting plans in place to evacuate personnel and assets should China attack the island nation. Although there are no reports of businesses leaving the island yet, the unprecedented Chinese military exercises in the waters surrounding Taiwan, as well as Taiwan’s own defensive military drills, have led corporate leaders to prepare for such an eventuality. The war preparations on both sides of the Taiwan Strait prompted Taipei’s National Palace Museum to initiate “wartime response measures” several weeks ago. The precautions include security measures for staff as well as ones to safeguard and evacuate the museum’s treasures.
“According to several security consulting firms, a number of multinational business leaders were caught flat-footed by the rising tensions between Taiwan and China,” said an accompanying analyst comment.
“Those who do not want to be on the island during a Chinese takeover will need to lead-turn their departure based on daily reports of Chinese military preparations. Once an air and sea blockade is put into effect, it is unlikely commercial transportation, even for foreigners, will be available,” the analyst added.